LETTER: Uptrend in severe weather called 'questionable'


In my Nov. 6 LET-

ter to the editor, I indicated closing Ohio's coal-fired power plants would only reduce global warming by the difference between the average annual temperature in Aurora and ¾-mile south of Aurora, while doubling electricity costs and reducing reliability, which makes Ohio a less attractive state.

Leanne Karrigan's Nov. 13 letter to the editor noted the federal EPA was predicting faster warming than I used for my estimate. Here's why I used the low end of the EPA's forecast.

Although global temperatures rose slightly the last century, for 16 years now, they've been flat. None of the 50 states recorded a record high this century and there's been no record high for any of the seven continents. Temperatures aren't increasing anything like the EPA predicted.

Many scientists accurately predicted the current flat temperatures. They say much of the warming last century, which the EPA attributed to greenhouse gases, was due to natural causes, specifically an unusually active sun and ocean current oscillation (La Ninas, El Ninos, etc.) in the warming phase.

Both phenomena are now reverting to a cooler phase which is offsetting any greenhouse effect. These scientists predict relatively flat temperatures for at least two more decades, and in the longer term, global temperatures will grow, but much slower than the EPA predicted, even if atmospheric CO2 continues to grow.

Concern was expressed that weather is becoming more severe with growing CO2 emissions. U.S. tornadoes this year are running 40 percent below the historical average.

Although there was a recent strong Asian typhoon, the Atlantic hurricane season experienced a 30-year low. The U.S. is in the midst of the longest streak ever recorded -- eight years -- without a category 3 or stronger hurricane. Historically, we expect occasional very severe weather. But an uptrend is questionable.

Dick Smith, Aurora

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